4 Bold predictions for the MotoGP 2022 season
28th February 2022Credit: Red Bull Content Pool
In just a few days time, with thunderous engines and smell of smoking tyres, MotoGP will come roaring back for another season.
MotoGP has moved on from the days when less than half a dozen riders could ever compete for victory. Heading in to the 2022 season, which kicks off in Qatar on March 6, the competition is closer than ever. In pre-season testing the top 21 riders of a 24-man grid were lapping within one second of each other.
Trying to pick a winner for each race is like playing darts blindfolded with a rotating target. Nobody really knows what to expect.
Nevertheless, bold predictions and prophecies of upcoming catastrophe are the lifeblood of off-season sports fans, keeping the passions running while there is no on-track action. So lets look into the crystal ball, and see what’s going to happen this season.
Aprilia (finally) win a MotoGP race
A motorcycle manufacturing superstar, Aprilia was founded in 1945 and first entered races in the 1970s. A paddock stalwart for decades, Aprilia left MotoGP in 2004, before rejoining in 2012. Their entries have taken a variety of forms. First, some woeful Claiming Rule Team (CRT) bikes that were glorified superbikes, not true prototypes. Then from 2015, a ‘factory-supported independent team’ in the form of Gresini Racing.
None of the various teams who ran Aprilias such as Gresini, Aspar or Paul Bird Motorsport achieved much. The bikes became known as career-enders, with plenty of riders having a go before disappearing to race superbikes, or obscurity.
For 2022, Aprilia have finally entered as an official, full-factory effort. They unveiled a stunning livery and so far in pre-season testing, the bike seems to be living up to its looks. Both Maverick Vinales and Aleix Espargaro have performed strongly at the Sepang International Circuit and the brand new Mandalika International Street Circuit.
Vinales will be looking to become one of only a handful of riders to win a MotoGP race riding for three different factories. He won his first with Suzuki, and eight more with Yamaha. If he can put Aprilia on the top step of the podium, it may be his finest achievement yet.
A veteran of 281 world championship races across four categories of motorcycle, Aleix is yet to win a race. He’s managed just three podiums. Expecting multiple race wins or podiums is probably excessive, but do look for him to be mixing it with the front runners at certain tracks.
Aprilia have finally matched commitment and capable machinery with talented, determined riders, so expect their best results yet.
https://twitter.com/suzukimotogp/status/1498236983491141634
Pedro Acosta continues his meteoric rise
Starting last season at just 16 year old, Pedro Acosta showed himself to be the fastest, smartest rider in Moto3. Collecting six wins on his way to winning the championship by a comfortable 43 points, the emergence of Acosta’s superstar-level talent blew all his competitors into the shadows.
Hotly tipped youngsters and lower classes old stagers were both shoved aside. He wasn’t old enough to drink the podium champagne, but showed better maturity than racers a decade his senior.
Acosta makes the well-deserved step up to Moto2 for 2022, remaining with the vastly successful Ajo team. Expect him to have a very different trajectory to 2019 Moto3 champion Lorenzo Dalla Porta, who has managed a measly 15 points from 28 starts in Moto2.
Prior to the most recent Moto2 test, it may have been reasonable to expect Acosta to have a similar season to Joan Mir’s only Moto2 campaign, which featured four podiums and sixth in the overall standings.
Acosta, no stranger to writing his own spectacular scripts, had different ideas. At Portimao, he set the fastest time and looked utterly comfortable on the more powerful Moto2 bike.
It seems inexorable that Acosta will continue his stratospheric rise, claim lots of consistent points finishes, podiums and wins. It may be a stretch too far to take the championship, but these days no achievement seems beyond reach.
KTM unleash a monstrously good rookie
Five riders will be making the jump up from Moto2 to become MotoGP rookies. Moto2 world champion Remy Gardener and his runner up and team mate Raul Fernandez (both Tech3 KTM) arrive, along with Marco Bezzecchi (VR46 Racing Team, Ducati), Fabio Di Giannantonio (Gresini Racing, Ducati) and finally, dive-bomb himself, Darryn Binder (WithU RNF, Yamaha).
This glut of new talent means the rookie of the year will be more of a challenge to win, compared to previous years where the one rookie in the class won by default (looking at you, Tito Rabat).
Fresh off a champion season, you might expect Gardener to be the bolted-on favourite to be the fastest rookie. However, it took six seasons of steady growth in Moto2 for Remy to land the title. He’s performed reasonably well in testing so far, albeit hampered by an injured wrist. Expect the Australian to score points regularly, but struggle to break into the top ten.
Due to a weird contract quirk, the undesirability of the WithU ride, and the late formation of the team, Darryn Binder was the unlikely recipient of a MotoGP ride. He becomes the first rider to move directly from Moto3 since Jack Miller in 2015. We can confidently write off his chances at being top rookie, and hope he doesn’t cause carnage crashing into other riders.
Bezzecchi and Di Giannantonio reach the premier class of motorcycle racing having accumulated solid careers in the lower divisions of racing, without putting together a championship-winning season. Both will be riding satellite Ducati bikes a little factory support. They are likely to be consistent, if unspectacular, as they look to lay a good foundation for lengthy top class careers.
Finally, the phenomenon that is Raul Fernandez. Just 21 years old, the Spaniard needed only two full seasons of Moto3 to prove himself and progress to Moto2. He won eight races compared to Gardener’s five, and missed out on claiming the title by just four points. Beyond these statistical measures of success, he was quite simply ferociously fast.
At any track, in any condition, he rattled up pole positions, fastest laps and blisteringly quick race pace. A whirlwind of a season led to Yamaha trying to poach Fernandez from KTM, and he seemed keen to go. However, KTM pinned him down with legalese, and he remains a potent weapon for the orange manufcatuer. For now. It may not be long until we see him in Yamaha blue.
Smith electrifies MotoE World Cup
Bradley Smith returns to the MotoE for the first time since 2019, when he finished second overall in the world cup’s inaugural season. He will ride for the cumbersomely named WithU GRT RNF MotoE Team, with Niccolo Canepa as his team mate.
The last few seasons of MotoE have seen a ragtag bunch of riders form the grid. Moto2 drop-outs, World Superbike exiles and solid national superbike championship riders
Smith brings a different dimension and extra sparkle to the competition. He was talented enough to finish sixth overall in MotoGP, and claim 25 podiums (two wins) across MotoGP, Moto2 and 125 cc racing. This should put him ahead of the rest, despite his absence from the series for a couple of season.
In 2019, Smith claimed to only be riding at 90% of the limit, as his job testing and wildcard riding for Aprilia’s MotoGP effort was at the forefront of his mind.
With no other commitments this season, Smith can fully commit to racing MotoE, so expect to strongly contend for overall victory.
Every race weekend is essential viewing
That covers some outlandish predictions for the upcoming year, which will be full of these and other narratives. The best part of a new season is all riders across all classes, from the old stagers in MotoGP to the youngest teenager in Moto3, start with zero points.
They can dream of hitting every apex perfectly, champagne-drenched podiums and hordes of fans cheering them to go ever faster. MotoGP is one of the greatest spectacles in the world. It’s almost time for the lights to go out, and to start chasing chequered flags.
That’s all for the article: 4 Bold predictions for the MotoGP 2022 season! With the season just around the corner, what are you looking forward to the most in 2022? Let us know in the comments!
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